This is the first part of my conversation with Bob Grenier, a 27-year veteran of the CIA and the former director of its Counter-Terrorism Center. Starting in the 1980s, he was gathering intelligence on Iran.
Our interview came after the U.S. military reported that it has targeted more than 1,700 locations in Iran since Saturday under Operation Epic Fury, and President Donald Trump told journalists, “It was my opinion that they were going to attack first.”
Bob expressed a sense of unease upon learning about the U.S. strikes. “I guess my initial thought was, ‘Here we go again,’” he told me.
“I’ve been involved during the course of my career, my professional career, in a number of wars, most prominently in Afghanistan and in Iraq. And, to say the very least, they were very challenging. And it did not seem to me as though we had an imminent need to go to war with Iran at the current time. And so I have to say, I was not happy to see this develop.”
I asked him to step into the mind of Iran’s regime. If officials in the Trump administration say the strikes are meant to stop Iran from pursuing a nuclear weapon and strengthening their ballistic missile program, will this attack incentivize Tehran to move faster and harder on nukes and missiles when the dust clears? “It certainly would motivate them in that direction. No question about it,” he said, adding that Iran appears to be convinced that it needs a nuclear weapon for immunity against the United States and Israel.
“The question is, are they able to do it secretly, in a way that would preclude being struck in some sort of preemptive strike, which is what they’re undergoing right now. I think they will have every motivation to do precisely what you’re describing, but I don’t think that they will be in a practical position to do it for quite some time.”
When Trump was asked who he would want to lead Iran, he told journalists very bluntly, “Most of the people we had in mind are dead.” Bob tells me we are long past the point where the CIA could look at successors or the U.S. could have a say.
“We’re not going to be choosing the next leadership in Iran — certainly not under the current circumstances. And the Islamic Republic of Iran, it has a very elaborated system. There was no time at all after the death of [Supreme Leader Ali] Khamenei that you the naming of the three-person leadership council.”
He thinks that it is not impossible that the regime can be toppled, but he does not believe it will happen soon.
Much more in the video. Part two, exclusively for paid subscribers, will be available on Wednesday.
