Javed Ali, a former senior director for counterterrorism in the National Security Council, tells me that it is safe to assume that covert action is “well underway” in Iran. So I went to two other former senior officials, who expressed the same certainty.
“I’m sure there’s a finding out there that the president signed at a very high level,” a former senior defense official said on the condition of anonymity. A third person confirmed this stance. A finding is a classified legal document that authorizes these covert operations inside the intelligence community.
President Donald Trump doesn’t need to come out and say it. In fact, I’ve heard that some in the intel community were shocked by how much the president has already stated — ie, his public disclosure of a drone strike in Venezuela. I’m told this threatens to chip away at the legal foundation to support a covert action finding. Why is it covert if the president is talking about it?
To be clear, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is a designated terrorist group. And in this video, I lay out the secret menu available at Trump’s order. It includes sabotaging regime facilities on cyber or kinetic levels, training and arming opposition, and psychological operations.
With the regime shutting down the internet as part of its attempts to quell protesters, I’m told that Elon Musk’s Starlink is likely high priority. That could literally mean operatives are handing out boxes of “white sims,” SIM cards that act like burner phones and allow people to access Starlink with their cell phones.
All three sources seemed to think military strikes were likely. But the defense official pointed out how “there’s just not a lot in CENTCOM right now.” The USS Gerald R. Ford carrier is still in the Caribbean region where Southern Command has domain, and the two Pacific carriers are in the Indo-Pacific. “They’re three weeks out.”
The U.S. could launch B-2 bombers, the person said, but that would require a lot of work and accompanying aircraft, such as F-22 or F-35 fighter jets, jammers, and tankers.
Of course, the Israelis may join the U.S. in operations, as we saw in the summer’s strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. According to The Times of Israel, Iranian security forces claimed they had arrested terrorists linked to Israel. They purportedly entered through Iran’s eastern border and “carried US-made guns and explosives that the group had planned to use in assassinations and acts of sabotage.” (Let’s remember that the Iranians aren’t exactly known for telling the truth. They do love to blame the U.S. and Israel.)
As Trump makes threats and weighs military options, I’m also told that the administration is buying time. And it’s not because a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier isn’t in the region. They are doing “outreach” — searching for a post-Ayatollah Ali Khamenei leader, beyond the mullahs who still hold significant political power in the country.
Toppling the leadership could descend the country into a civil war, with regional consequences. So team Trump is assessing if there is some disaffected colonel-type in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that they could live with… a la Delcy Rodriguez in Venezuela.
“Good luck with that,” the former defense official said. “They should [be searching] and I hope they are. Good for them for doing it. [But] there’s not much there.”
For whatever it’s worth, the IRGC Intelligence Organization released a statement on January 10 saying it is “dealing with possible acts of abandonment.”
The White House has not responded to a request for comment. We will see if the Iranian people’s unrest — with an estimated 2,600 killed and another 18,000 arrested — continues in the days ahead. Mahsa Amini’s arrest and fatal beating sparked protests but had an expiration date. This time, the country’s economic noose touches everyone and remains tight.
