Are prediction markets becoming statecraft? That’s the question I explored with Adam Siegel, the CEO and Co-Founder of Cultivate Labs. The company wrote software that the Office of the Director of National Intelligence used, as it tried out a prediction market for the intel community, long before the days of Polymarket.
Adam and I talked about how foreign governments are using prediction markets to answer national security questions. I asked him about the UK’s “Cosmic Bazaar,” which he said got its name over beers and dinner at an Indian restaurant.
The platform was run by the Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment, which leads the UK’s analytic tradecraft. Cosmic Bazaar ended but its forecasting work may start back up again through the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Adam spoke about the Swedish parliament’s “Glimt,” a forecasting site that emerged from a direct line with the Ukrainians. Citizens can cast predictions from questions posed by Ukrainian officials. The data, Adam says, gets worked into some of Kyiv’s open source intelligence analysis.
The Russians are most certainly trying to sully Glimt, he added. Just like U.S. adversaries are most certainly trying to exploit Polymarket and other prediction platforms to sow confusion and get payouts on covert operations.
In Germany, think tank Bertelsmann Stiftung also has a forecasting platform which supports governments in the European Union. First, Bertelsmann runs workshops with government entities to explore strategic questions. Adam attended one where intel officers were asked to think about what the future of NATO will look like on Europe’s Eastern flank. Then participants identify different indicators, which eventually become questions posed on Bertelsmann’s forecasting site.
Our conversation came after President Donald Trump wrote Tuesday evening on TruthSocial, “It is critically important that the [Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s] exclusive authority over Prediction Markets is maintained, and that they will thrive. … Other Countries are after this new form of Financial Market, and we want to remain at the top.”
To be clear, the prediction markets Adam and I discussed were government-focused and do not have a financial incentive. And this interview is a companion piece to my exclusive report on the U.S.’s now shuttered prediction program, which saw intel officers use their knowledge of classified information to place bets on national security matters. There was no financial reward, just play money and rankings on a leaderboard. I highly recommend you read that for a richer experience as you watch my conversation with Adam.
The rest of our chat is available below solely to paid subscribers. They allow me to continue this work of showing new facets of the intel community and doing deeper dives than what mainstream media allows.
We get into Asia, such as Japan using forecasting to assess lunar politics (issues that include mining for rare earths on the moon), early adopters on the Asian continent, what Israel is up to, and where government-oriented prediction markets are headed.
