How help from Mossad made Israel's 'Operation Rising Lion' roar in Iran
Israel's spies managed to infiltrate and then bring Iranian military leaders together for a sweeping assassination, according to a former Israeli intel officer.
The first day of what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanhayu calls Operation Rising Lion has begun, a campaign that some believe was prompted by internal political pressure in Israel as well as a desire the stop diplomatic negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. “We have risen like lions to defend ourselves,” Netanhayu said.
It is unclear how much of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure was damaged, whether Israel created merely a setback or a veritable smashup. “That’s not possible,” National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi told Israel’s Channel 12. “It cannot be done via kinetic means.”
Tehran had just publicly announced on Thursday that it had constructed and would soon open a third “very highly secure” uranium enrichment facility. And as is often the case in these attacks, Iranian officials contended that their Natanz nuclear site suffered “superficial damages” and their Fordow site remains “safe and unharmed.”
Beyond the targeted places are the targeted people — a slew of Iranian officials killed in the operation. And that was apparently the result of Mossad’s work.
It went beyond smuggling drones into Iran months ago. “Israeli intelligence learned, at least more than in the last few months, how the Iranian military leadership conducts its business,” former Israeli intel officer and political analyst Shay Hershkovitz told me. And then they convinced these leaders that they needed to meet. “They were able to lure all the commanders into one underground facility. And they were able, based on their understanding of how they operate, to keep them there until the time was right to launch the attack.”
Who died? According to Iranian state media: Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces Major General Mohammad Hossein Baqeri, Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Major General Hossein Salami (the replacement for Gen. Qassem Soleimani, killed in a U.S. airstrike during President Donald Trump’s first term), Commander of Iran’s Khatam al-Anbia Central Headquarters Major General Gholam Ali Rashid, and Commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force Major General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, along with at least six nuclear scientists.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed revenge. “A bitter, painful fate.” But it’s worth noting that none of these men were political leaders.
What they are… is hard to replace, Shay told me. Even if Iran has already announced some of their successors. “Unlike Western societies — where someone will have a certain position for four years, five years, and they will move on — in Iran, these people who were killed have been serving in the same role for 30, 35 years. So it’s not that they are replaceable very quickly.”
Along with Mossad and the Israel Defense Forces, Unit 8200, Israel’s NSA counterpart, also played a role. Shay says it is safe to assume that the agency launched cyberattacks and electronic warfare — jamming communication channels and radars. That’s in addition to black ops psychological warfare that deceived Iran’s military and political leadership, “leading them to believe that [an Israeli] strike is not imminent.”
I’m also hearing that the list of targets was appreciably higher than what Iranian media has reported — men targeted in their homes, sleeping in their beds. Israel also tried to kill Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani. And likely went after leaders in the Basij, a paramilitary incorporated into the IRGC.
It seems clear that strategy was meant to be longterm, hitting not just nuclear facilities and scientists but the people who could best conduct a retaliation — military commanders and IRGC’s command and control.
Trump, who released bunker buster bomb shipments to Israel earlier this year, took to his social media platform, saying, “Certain Iranian hardliner’s spoke bravely, but they didn’t know what was about to happen. They are all DEAD now, and it will only get worse! … Iran must make a deal, before there is nothing left.”
Trump also said he was aware of Israel’s plans, telling The Wall Street Journal, “Heads-up? It wasn’t a heads-up. It was, we know what's going on.”
Iranian officials will be assessing whether Washington had more to do with Thursday’s operation. That will include looking at the data: Which jets came from where, whether air defenses of other U.S. allies (like Jordan or Saudi Arabia) were activated before Israel’s strikes were carried out, and other telemetry measures.
Of course, as I write this, Iran’s missiles and drones are striking Israel in retaliation. Shay’s family members were hiding in bunkers as we spoke. Several civilians in Israel were reported wounded.
We will see in time how much of Iran’s weapons arsenal they are willing to expend on retaliation. In 2022, U.S. Central Command's Gen. Kenneth McKenzie said Iran had “over 3,000” ballistic missiles.
Shay thinks this is just the beginning. “We should expect to see terrorist attacks all around the world against Israeli and Jewish institutions,” he told me before we got off our phone call. “Much bigger than the recent ones [at the Capital Jewish Museum] in D.C. or the one in Boulder, Colorado. I think it’s going to be more organized. And the Iranians, they're known for their patience.”
Tremendous insights Sasha. Unfortunately I lack faith FFOTUS and his incompetent regime can stem further escalation so keep the information flowing and be safe.