Inside international efforts in Doha to get back hostages
So some heads of state, government officials, families of detained Americans, and members of the Taliban all walk into a room. It sounds like the first line of a joke. But it happens to be an accurate description of the past Monday in Doha, as the annual Global Security Forum got started.
Oftentimes when I go to these events, the place itself becomes a focus. (And in full disclosure, my whole trip as a budding Substacker was covered by a global intelligence and security consultancy firm called The Soufan Group, which hosted the event.) From my balcony, I saw Qatar’s capital as a pastel city in LED -- shimmering, quiet, and clean against the still water of the bay.
But that is not how Doha looked back in 2016. I was on my way back to the U.S. after a few weeks in refugee camps in Iraq, courtesy of ISIS’ declared caliphate and the civil war in Syria. That day, the shine of Doha, built by so many exploited migrant workers, felt like an affront to my senses. Why was one person born to a life of abundance, while another watched their land, home, women, and children suffer? I cried on a plane back to Washington at the injustice of geography.
Today, years out from that particular kind of sorrow, I see Qatar branding itself as a master mediator, able to walk a fine line between the U.S. and its adversaries… a strategic move for a place where power initially came from gas. One guest told me the small Gulf country wants to be the Switzerland of the Middle East, offering beautiful, neutral ground. And its main regional competition is Oman, the intermediary between the U.S. and Iran during the nuclear talks.
This by-invitation-only conference took place as Palestinians continued to suffer, hostages remain captive in Gaza, Russia made a show of tactical nuclear weapons drills near Ukraine, and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash. There was a lot to discuss, publicly and privately.
“Raisi set a new standard for the degree of subservience” to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran expert Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group told the room that first day. “After the last months of a back and forth between Iran and Israel, I think the old rules of the game are out, and the new rules are not yet fully established.”
That thought of new rules could apply to a lot in the world right now. Because inside an over-air-conditioned luxury hotel, what stood out was how the families of hostages were busy. Busy meeting on the sidelines with officials who might have influence, busy handing out bracelets and photos of their loved ones, like souvenirs. Busy trying to learn the rules of a game they had never, ever asked to play. I gathered they could hear a clock ticking that no one outside of such terrible circumstances ever can. The wild wonder of what will it take to get my loved one back?
The group included a few families of hostages held in Gaza, as well as victim advocate Liz Hirsh Naftali, whose grandniece turned four in Hamas’ grasp before she was released in November. Anna Corbett was there too. Her husband Ryan had traveled to Afghanistan to continue his consulting and microfinancing work, believing officials who had told him that his business was still needed in the country. He has been imprisoned by the Taliban since August 2022, his company’s last Facebook post, from that month, still full of hope.
During the conference, a former intelligence officer with knowledge of Ryan’s case told me he is being held in a basement of Afghanistan’s General Directorate of Intelligence. A video feed on him ironically comes from U.S.-supplied cameras, installed years before the country’s collapse. The State Department took 13 months to designate Ryan as wrongfully detained, because the U.S. does not recognize the Taliban as the official government of Afghanistan. At the same time, I am told that the U.S. shares some level of intelligence with the Taliban on ISIS-K, a shared foe.
The Qataris have also been negotiating with the Taliban for Ryan. They gave the family a photo of him in December but didn’t share much more, according to the source. Qatar has influence because in 2013, it invited the Taliban to open a political office in Doha with approval from Washington.
One evening, after the panels and very jet lagged, I texted a senior Taliban official who sat among the rows of guests. I would have liked to know what he thought of the speakers, to consider whether his attendance indicated some sort of openness or if it was just a pathway to build diplomatic channels and legitimacy for a country both stolen and bought. But the man did not respond, and likely did not have the clearance to do so. Numerous U.S. officials told me they were glad the Taliban were there, hoping it could bring something positive. Anna was advised not to speak with them, if she ever had the slightest desire to, in the chance that the interaction could derail negotiations, another source told me.
Like the Taliban, Hamas has found political shelter in the streets of Doha. There is debate on whether the U.S. requested that the city host offices, or simply did not oppose it. “We enjoy keeping communication channels with all parties,” Qatar’s Minister of State Mohammed bin Abdulaziz Al-Khulaifi told the conference participants. “We're standing with international law and the international charter. We will continue to advocate for that regardless of whether this comes from a friendly state or not.”
Al-Khulaifi says his country won’t mediate without written approval from both sides. And they have had success: Recently, Qatar secured the release of Ukrainian children who were deported to Russia amid Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion. It helped bring back Americans imprisoned in Venezuela. It brokered a deal that saw Americans freed in Iran.
“The world is counting on Qatar to use their relationships,” U.S. Amb. to Qatar Timmy Davis said in his session. Some lawmakers and security experts criticize Qatar for harboring and funding Hamas -- albeit under Benjamin Netanyahu’s watch. A Western diplomat told me on the condition of anonymity that Hamas already has offices in Istanbul and Tehran. No Qatari in Doha would say whether they would eventually cut ties with the terrorist group. Davis said, “The question for the world is, would you rather have an adversary or a foe communicating your desire for the end to this conflict?”
As the U.S., Qatar, and Egypt try to revive a hostage deal and ceasefire negotiations, the Western diplomat also told me that getting a message from Doha to Gaza and back takes a day or two. The source thinks someone may be running a note through Gaza’s deep tunnels to eventually reach Yahya Sinwar, the man believed to be hiding in that underworld, as the architect behind the Oct. 7 attacks. Hamas’ diplomatic leadership in Doha gave a political direction to “break the siege,” but had few details on the military faction’s planned attacks, the diplomat said. “I don’t see any sign of hope of a hostage deal as part of a ceasefire package,” the source added.
But by coincidence, just last year, the U.S. and Qatar had prepared for a hostage crisis -- and it happened in Doha, according to Chris Costa, the former Senior Director for Counterterrorism at the National Security Council. Last July, officials from Qatar’s Ministry of Defense, Interior, and security services participated in a three-day exercise with officials from the U.S. Department of State, Defense, and the FBI. Another source with knowledge of the workshop said that other countries, like Canada, had been hesitant to take part. But the Qataris leaned in.
And lessons were learned. “There was a tension, an inherent tension,” said Chris, now the Executive Director of the International Spy Museum in Washington. He said the U.S. had wanted to conduct rescue operations. That was how Caitlan Coleman was freed in 2017, when Pakistani forces acted on U.S. intelligence and stopped a vehicle carrying her, her husband, and the three children she gave birth to during five years in captivity with the Haqqani network. But Chris said that during the simulation, the Qataris diverged from the U.S.’s kinetic approach. “The Qataris said, 'We think we can do some negotiations.’”
So far, words have not worked in freeing all hostages in Gaza, Russia, or China. Hostage negotiations are either an art or a science. The U.S.’s top hostage negotiator, Roger Carstens, described how agonizing negotiations can be. “I would love it if I was trying to get someone who is being held by Iran or Russia and the other side asked for something like, 'Roger, we're going to get this American back to you, but you have to ensure that the next post office in Missoula, Montana, is named Stalin.' Easy, good to go, let's go and make that happen. Instead, it's usually something that's much more excruciating and hard to do.”
Though Roger said his number of hostages is decreasing, there is reason to believe the future is rife with possibility that more innocent citizens will be taken as bargaining chips in new and frightening ways. Hamas’ attack was not directed at the U.S., but it has become “one of the most consequential terrorist attacks we've seen in the modern era,” said Christine Abizaid, Director of the National Counterterrorism Center. “It has completely upended U.S. strategy in the Middle East. It has driven a whole different level of geopolitical dynamic. And it will set the stage for the next generation of terrorism,” she said.
Today, Canada is leading an effort to deter the hostage-taking industry among nation states. “There is strength in numbers,” said Canada’s Senior Official for Hostage Affairs Julie Sunday. They have 77 endorsements across the world, and more coming, she said.
In October, Canada will also host a Five Eye conference, according to Raj Maan, who leads the Hostage Recovery Fusion Cell at the FBI. “This is something a couple of years out, where we replicate something with Europe as well, so we can have a multilateral fusion response where we can get our resources together and deal with this issue with multiple countries versus one.”
Until that day comes, whatever it looks like, hostage negotiators and hostage families will be busy trying to get back their loved ones. And Doha seems poised to have its day.